施工进度BIM可靠性预测方法.pdf

第36卷第4期
土木建筑与环境工程
2014年8月
ournal of Civil, Architectural & Environmental Engineering
Aug.2014
doi:10.11835/j.issn.1674-4764.2014.04.008
施工进度BIM可靠性预测方法
李勇
(黄淮学院建筑工程学院,河南驻马店463000)
摘要:为实现BIM技术预测功能,采用可靠性理论、概率方法理论,考虑施工过程及进度影响因
素的不确定性,分析了目标进度和预测进度的复杂关系,建立了施工进度随机预测模型。特别考虑
了施工过程单因素影响条件,研究了单因素进度预测确定性和随机模型,以及基于单因素影响的预
测进度可靠性分析方法。同时,探讨了基于BIM管理平台的施工进度可靠性预测集成管理方法。
工程实例表明,所提方法对控制施工进度具有明显效果。
关键词:BIM技术;施工进度;可靠性;预测模型;施工控制
中图分类号:F407.9文献标志码:A文章编号:1674-4764(2014)04-0051-06
Analysis on Predictive Methods of BIM Based
on Construction Schedule Reliability
School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Huanghuai University, Zhumadian 463000, Henan, P. R. China)
Abstract: In order to realize the predictive function of BIM technology, the reliability theory and theoretical
probability method are utilized to judge the uncertainty which exists in the process of construction
Meanwhile, the complicated relationship between construction schedule and prediction model is analyze
the random prediction model for construction schedule is established as well. Particularly, the influencing
condition about a single factor in the process of construction is taken into consideration. Determinate model
and random model for construction time as well as reliability analysis method for the construction time
prediction which is based on a single influencing factor are studied. At the same time, The integrated
management method of reliability prediction about construction schedule which is on basis of BIM
management platform is discussed. The case study shows that the proposed method has delivered dramatic
results to the control of construction schedule
Key words: BIM technology; construction schedule; reliability; prediction model; construction control
施工进度管理关系到项目经济效益。由于施工的资源联系,对进度的确定进行指导; Adriana等
过程的复杂性、动态性、不确定性等原因,使得工程实提出了进度计刘更新的模糊逻辑分析方法;Hanf
施中进度的预测与控制难度极大。BM技术和协同等提出基于BIM计算项目进度活动持续时间的
平台实现了工程进度和成本的可视化模拟展示,提高模型;李林等?应用蒙特卡洛方法模拟确定进度的
了进度和成本管理的效率。目前对工程进度的研究分布和期望;孟文清等?考虑了模糊网络的进度风
中, Bubshait等归提出进度视窗法应用于进度延误分险和完工概率,描述风险因素影响下工序持续时间
析; Pierre等考虑项目进度的不确定性和各工序的可能性;中国广联达、鲁班、PKPM、斯维尔等研发
收稿日期:2013-10-20
基金项目;河南省中青年骨干教师资助计划(2012GGJS-217);驻马店市科技攻关计划(14323)
作者简介:李勇(1975-),女,博士,副教授,主要从事工程管理研究,(E-mail)i2853579c163.com