硕士论文-基于灰色模型的财务预警机制研究.pdf

Y1213910
学校代码:10488
学号:05106037
武溪找大学
硕士学位论文
题目基于灰色模型的财务预警机制研究
专业
企业管理
研究方向
财务管理
姓名
朱琴
导师
邱玉莲教授
定稿日期:2007年11月15日
武汉科技大学硕土学位论文
第Ⅰ页
摘要
本文以制造业为例,对企业财务风险进行分析,旨在解决当前财务危机预警指标以及
财务信息失真导致的财务预警失效,在吸收前人成果的基础上,提出了相关的预指标,
进行了实例分析和实证研究,并通过 MATLAB-平台,更为简便地实现预警过程。对于完善我
国企业财务危机预警方面的研究具有一定参考价值。
首先,阐述了本文的研究背景及意义,并总结了国内外对财务风险预苓系统的研究现
状
其次,本文根据财务风险存在一定规律性的特点提出了灰色预测模型,它能对一定时
间内是否发生财务风险进行预测。通过分析传统指标的局限性和现金流量指标优越性,指
出了本文选取现金流量指标的原因。并以银广厦为例,进一步证实了以现金流量指标优于
传统指标。本文从现金流量指标体系中选取较有代表性和说服力的指标一一自由现金流量
指标,通过该指标对企业是否存在财务风险进行分析。
再次,选择我国10家制造类ST公司作为研究样本,证明自由现金流量与企业财务风险
成正相关关系。并从中选取ST英特的自由现金流量作为本论文灰色预警模型的变量进行实
证分析。
最后,针对企业对现金管理不够重视的现状,本文在传统指标的基础上,建立了一套
完整的现金流量指标评价体系,为企业财务危机预警提供了新的研究思路。
关键词:财务预警现金流量灰色模型
第页
武汉科技大学硕土学位论文
Abstract
In order to solve the existing problems that lie in the current financial warming index and the
financial infommation distortion problems, the thesis took the manufacturing industry as an
example, carried on analysis of the enterprise finance risk. In the foundation of absorbing the
predecessor's achievements, this thesis proposed warning index, carried on the cases analysis
and the empirical research, then easily realized the prewarning process through the MATLAB
platform. The thesis also made out a demonstration that supplied references to the study of
financial crisis warning in our country.
Firstly, the thesis elaborated the background and significance of the research, and
summaized the current study situation about financial crisis warning. The thesis have certain
understanding the development of warning model, through the description and the analysis of
domestic and foreign financial crisis warning system
Next, this thesis proposed the gray forecast model in view of the financial risk existing
certain regular, the gray forecast model can forecast whether the enterprise has the financial risk
in a certain time. The thesis pointed out the reason of selecting the cash flow index through
analysis of tradition indexes limitation and cash current indexes superiority And take Yin
Guangxia as an example, the thesis confirmed that the cash flow index is better than the
traditional index. This thesis selects representative and the persuasive index from the cash
current index - free cash flow index, and analyzed whether enterprise has the financial risk
through the analysis of it.
Once more, the thesis chose 10 manufactures ST Corporation in order to certificate free
cash flow and the finance risk is connected. And selected the free cash flow index of ST Yingte
company to anal yze,
Finally, in view of the present situation which the enterprise takes to the cash management
insufficiently, we analyze all kinds of factors to set up an integrated system of cash flow
predicting indexes, provided a new way to the financial crisis warning of the manufacturing
industry company.
Key words: financial risk prediction/cash flow index/grey model