供应链早期预警系统的构架及其动态仿真研究.pdf

上海大学
硕士学位论文
供应链早期预警系统的构架及其动态仿真研究
姓名:邓林
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:管理科学与工程
指导教师:宋国防
20080112
上海大学硕士学位论文
摘要
供应链管理作为在全球经济一体化背景下应势而生的一种集成化管理模
式,在各个领域得到广泛应用。但供应链管理在给成员企业带来利益的同时,
也带来种种新的风险。供应链早期预警系统的建立对企业来说显得越来越重要
了,而供应链上复杂的节点以及大量传递的信息,注定了对于供应链中的任何
一个企业来说,供应链都是一个藴藏着丰富知识资源的知识源。因而供应链早
期预警系统的建立离不开知识管理这一工具。
本文从动力学角度出发,分析设计了供应链早期预警系统体系,重点分析
了供应链早期预警系统中各子系统的相互联系以及其运行的流程,并给出了早
期预警系统中预警指标体系的数学模型,为供应链企业控制风险,减少企业损
失提供了一种可行的方法。
在组织架构上,本文分析了供应链早期预警系统的目标、结构以及边界,
将供应链早期预警系统分为库存、生产、销售、采购、人力资源、创新、财务
等子系统。在此基础上,本文从知识管理的角度出发探讨供应链早期预警系统
的实现过程。本文的创新点在于从系统动力学角度出发对各个子系统之间的因
果反馈关系进行了分析,将它们有机联系起来,以逆推系统运行的思维来研究
和建立供应链早期预警系统的数学模型。
本文的研究结果可以为供应链上的早期预警研究提供相关的理论指导,对
降低供应链上潜在风险、实现系统的知识管理实现提供了理论依据。本文为研
究供应链早期预警系统提供了一种可借鉴的研究方法。
关键词:供应链,早期预警,知识管理,系统动力学
上海大学顽土学位论文
ABSTRACT
As the integrated management model in the global economy integration
background, Supply Chain Management(SCM)is widely used in various
management fields. However, SCM brings the enterprise the interest and also
the new risk It's more and more important that the supply chain early warning
system should be established. But the complex sully chain nodes and the
delivering information determine that the supply chain of any enterprise, is a
knowledge resources contains lots of knowledge. Hence the establishment of the
supply chain early warning system is inseparable from the tool of knowledge
management
From the view of dynamics study, this paper established a supply chain
early warning system, which focuses on the systematic anal ysis of all the
interrelated subsystems, as well as the process of its operation. Then the paper
gave the mathematical model of supply chain early warning system. This paper
provided a workable solution for the supply chain enterprise control the risk and
reduces the losses
In the organizational structure, the paper analyzed the characteristics of the
supply chain early warning system, summed up the objectives, structure and
borders of the supply chain early warning system. Then the system is divided
into several subsystems, which included inventory, production, sale, sourcing,
human resources, innovation and financial systems, On the other hand, this
paper analyzed the realization of the supply chain early warning system from the
view point of the knowledge management. Based the former analysis, this paper
analyzed the feedback relations of the subsystems and linked them together.
Then this paper established the dynamic model of supply chain early warning
system from the point of opposite system operation thinking.