宏观调控下天津市房地产市场理性发展研究.pdf

天津师范大学
硕士学位论文
宏观调控下天津市房地产市场理性发展研究
姓名:宋慧颖
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:环境科学
指导教师:段岩燕
20100301
摘要
从2002年开始,为保障房地产市场的稳定,国家采取了多方的调控对
策和措施,虽然取得了一定的可喜成绩,依然存在一定的问题。天津市房
地产市场在快速发展的同时,也存在着供应结构不合理、商品房价格上涨
过快等不稳定因素,随着滨海新区开发开放纳入国家战略,天津城市化进
程的加快,天津的房地产业发展面临着良好的机遇。因此,如何评价和引
导天津房地产业的理性发展变得尤为重要。
本文首先阐述了天津市房地产市场理性发展评价的研究意义,对国内
外房地产业宏观调控特点进行了比较分析研究,总结其教训和经验;其次
建立了天津市房地产市场变化的数理模型,分析了影响天津市房地产市场
的主要因素,指出天津房地产市场价格变化主要与人均可支配收入、土地
价格有关,房地产市场成交量主要与房价和竣工面积相关;再次建立了房
地产市场理性发展评价指标及评价方法,并对天津市房地产市场理性发展
水平进行单项评价和综合评价,其中综合评价结果显示目前天津房地产市
场整体上处于不理性状况;最后根据评价结果提出应采取进一步加大保障
房、提高居民收入、土地政策和金融手段双管齐下、充分发挥政府的监督
力量、丰富地方政府财政收入来源等措施促进天津市房地产市场理性发展。
关键词:宏观调控;房地产市场;理性发展评价;天津
ABSTRACT
Since 2002, in order to ensure the stability of price of the real estate market,
the government has taken a number of regulation policies and controlling
measures. The effectiveness of these policies and measures is mixing. With fast
development, there are some problems in the real estate market of Tianjin, such
as the improper supply structure and high speed increase in housing price. Up to
now, Tianjin Binhai new area has been incorporated into national development
strategy, and Tianjin' s urbanization process is becoming faster and faster, which
provide the real estate industry with lots of opportunities. It is a very important
thing to evaluate and promote the stable development of real estate market in
Firstly, this paper presented the significance of rational development and
assessment of real estate market in Tianjin. Then it makes comparison of
macroeconomic regulation systems over the real estate industry home and
broad, and offers some suggestions. Secondly, a mathematical model was
constructed on real estate markets change, and the influence factors were
analyzed. According to the empirical results, the real estate price in Tianjin
correlates with per capita disposable income and land price, while trading
volume correlates with real estate price and area completed. Thirdly, the paper
constructs evaluation system and method on the real estate market rational
development and applies the system both separately and comprehensively,
which leads to the conclusion that the real estate market now in Tianjin is
irrational. Finally, based on the rational evaluation results, the paper proposes
several policies and suggestions, which includes providing more low-income
housing, increasing citizen, s income, comprehensive using of land and financia
control, enhancing government regulation and increasing local government
revenue
Key Words: Macro-economic Control; Real Estate Market; Evaluation of
Development Rationality: Tianiin